Toyota's Chairman Stands Firm on Electric Car Skepticism and Forecast, EV Peak only at 30%

Jan 25, 2024 01:15 AM EST

TOYOTA YARIS PARKED ON THE ROAD — (Photo : PEXELS/Grégory Costa )

Akio Toyoda, the longstanding Chairman of Toyota, maintains his electric car skepticism, insisting that EVs will never dominate the market beyond a 30% market share.Toyoda continues to be an outspoken opponent of this change in the industry, even though Norway and Sweden have successfully adopted electric cars.

Toyoda's Skepticism, Predicts EV Market Share at 30%

Last October, as global EV sales faced a slowdown due to economic uncertainties, Toyoda emphasized that people were "finally recognizing the reality" of EVs. Now, he reaffirms his bearish outlook, boldly projecting that only three out of ten vehicles on the road will be powered by batteries.

Fortune shared details about Toyoda's thoughts about EV's existence in the market. Furthermore, Chairman Toyoda asserts that electric cars will never exceed one-third of the market, and he advocates against compelling consumers to purchase them.

He points out the need to focus on the advancement of other technologies as well. This includes hybrids and hydrogen-powered cars. Toyota has given priority to both EV and hybrid research. Moreover, Toyoda, highlighted that approximately one billion individuals currently reside in regions without access to electricity.

As shared on the report, this limitation diminishes the attractiveness of battery electric vehicles (EVs). According to Toyoda's estimation, fully-electric cars will only secure a 30% market share, with the remaining portion being occupied by hybrid vehicles or those utilizing hydrogen technology.

This perspective underscores his ongoing electric car skepticism.

As shared on Electrek, regardless of the advancements made in battery electric vehicles (BEVs), Toyoda stated in a presentation about the company's production system, that he believes the market will only hold 30% of electric vehicles (EVs).

He continued by saying that fuel cell electric cars, hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and hydrogen-powered automobiles will account for the remaining 70% of the market share. Toyoda also underlined his belief that conventional engine-powered automobiles will play a big part in the automotive sector going forward.

EV's Presence in Various Markets

The report also stated that, while Toyoda's remarks may suggest otherwise, numerous markets have already exceeded the 30% threshold. For instance, in 2023, Norway achieved an impressive 82.4% market share in electric vehicles (EVs). Additionally, Sweden stands at 32%, the Netherlands at 24%, and China is either above or on the verge of reaching this milestone.

Statistica reveals that in 2022, more than 20% of the passenger cars in Norway were equipped with electric powertrains. Although internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continued to dominate the passenger car segment in Norway, the combined sales of ICE and hybrid vehicles constituted only 11.43% of the new passenger car market in that year. Significantly, the bulk of newly sold light vehicles in the nation were electric, positioning Norway as the market leader for new electric vehicles (EVs) in Europe.

Statistica also reveals that from January to December 2022, Norway boasted the highest percentage of battery-electric cars in Europe, accounting for slightly more than 79.3%. In contrast, Ireland had the highest proportion of diesel-powered vehicles, with over 26.7% of vehicle sales in the country during that year consisting of diesel cars.